Predicting key features of a substation without monitoring

Mathematics-in-Industry Case Studies

Table 1 The error (RMSE) from the model predictions

R	Key feature (unit)	RMSE	Stnd. RMSE	GCV
6	Peak: mean position (half hour in day)	3.811	0.115	0.0080
8	Peak: mean value (kWh)	21.375	0.310	0.1064
1	Overall mean (kWh)	15.677	0.397	0.1373
2	Overall standard deviation (kWh)	6.751	0.409	0.1434
7	Peak: standard deviation of position (half hour in day)	3.054	0.530	0.1856
4	Trend: mean difference between years (kWh)	0.076	0.733	0.0033
9	Peak: standard deviation of value (kWh)	16.662	0.772	0.1805
3	Overall maximum (kWh)	224.21	0.786	0.2585
5	Trend: std. dev of diff. Between years (kWh)	0.141	0.928	0.0403

The standard RMSE error allows comparison across the nine models. The table is ordered by performance, that is the response variable most accurately predicted is first. A small GCV score means a better fit of the model